State-Capitalism,
Techno-Depreciation
of
Fixed Capital,
and the
Profit-Rate
Fall.
GLOBAL STRATEGIC
HYPOTHESES.
Dear Reader,
We hold that
the reality of Marx’s “Law of the Tendency of the Rate of Profit to Fall” –
driven, empirically, by techno-depreciation of
incompletely amortized fixed capital value, subtracted from gross profits, due
to the continued and accelerating growth of the social forces of production,
has shaped the total history of the ‘descendence-phase’ of
the global capitalist system, ever since circa 1870.
This proposition is the
premise of our ‘Marx-Orwell-Seldon Theory’
[MOST] of ‘descendence-phase’ capitalist history.
But how does this “law” – and,
especially, how does its techno-depreciation driver – impact, e.g., Lenino-Stalinoid
state-capitalist nation-states? Does
their – nationalized and national – “rate of profit” fall too during this ‘descendence-phase’?
At first glance, one might
think that such national state-capitalisms, of which today’s China is likely
the “purest” example so far, would be impervious to Marx’s “law”, and to its techno-depreciation
driver.
Facing the sudden world-market-competitive
incompetence of some of its industrial fixed capital, the industrial capital-owning
national-state “pure-bureaucratic capitalist ruling-class” dictatorship would
simply command the scrapping of that technological obsolescent fixed capital,
and order its replacement by new, competent fixed capital plant and machinery,
financing its purchase or construction out of its taxpayers’ “contributions”,
and/or out of previous “net earnings surplus” from its past overseas exports-sales.
Before further analysis of
such propositions, we should make clear here that the model that
we are using, that defines state-capitalism as we
see it, is our ‘national super-corporation’, or ‘national meta-corporation’
model, in which any previous non-state-owned corporation units/individual
capital units have been «aufheben» ‘meta-unit-ized’ into a single, national,
state-bureaucracy-“owned”, state-capital ‘meta-unit’, made up out of the
heterogeneous multiplicity of former, non-state-owned, mere corporations,
together with whatever new state-owned corporations the national state has
formed, if any.
The crucial thing about such
an idealized, extreme form of state-capitalism, as well as about real-world, approximate
instantiations thereof, which are never
as “purely” state-capitalist, and what keeps them capitalist, is
that they compete in the world market, both to sell
commodities to other nations’ economic entities, and to buy
vital resource commodities and other commodities from, other
nations’ economic entities, not just engaging commodity
commerce domestically only.
We are not
modeling some kind of perfect state of, unrealistic, autarky.
Now, for the purposes of this
blog-entry, keeping our analysis at the generalized level of the
logic of our ‘world-market-trading national
supercorporation’ hypothesis, without referencing historical data on
the social reproduction processes of Stalinist Russia, or of, e.g., today’s Xi-ist China,
Un-ist North Korea, and Castro-ist Cuba, it is clear that techno-depreciation
is a real threat to the reproduction of such ‘national super-corporation’ largely
state-capitalist regimes.
For such super-corps, a substantial
loss of value to the fixed capital of a key unit of their for-export commodity
production, with the need to replace the obsoleted fixed capital, before its
wear-and-tear depreciation, with a new purchase of new, competent fixed
capital, would have a substantial opportunity cost. Funds that could otherwise have gone to
R&D of more-advanced fixed capital, or to new industries, or even to ameliorate
the living-standards of restive wage-workers, would have to be diverted to that
new, replacement purchase.
If loans from foreign banks
needed to be used, to finance the replacement fixed capital purchases, and if
the scrapped equipment was also purchased via loans from foreign banks, then
debt service payments would be due now on two, not on just
one, foreign loan(s), including on the older loan for which the, scrapped,
fixed capital is no longer earning any repayment wherewithal at al.
And the number of foreign
bank loans demanding debt service payments would increment with every new
incident of technodepreciation, rising together with the number of loans
demanding payment on scrapped fixed capital purchases that are no longer
earning anything toward repayment of those debt-service-paymnts-demanding loans.
With technological ‘meta-evolutions’
accelerating – fusion “atomic power” supplanting ‘molecular power’; AI-brained
android robot workers partially-replacing human wagéd/-salaried-workers; “quantum
computing”, asteroid mining, etc. – the temporal spacing between such major [not
to mention more minor] techno-depreciation incidents might be shrinking, i.e.,
their frequency may be rising.
Not only would any default on
repayment of any of those foreign bank loans likely lead to loss of access to any
further foreign bank loans in the future, cratering the “credit rating” of that
‘national supercorporation’ worldwide.
In addition, this growing
number of loans’ aggregate debt-burden would adversely impact such a supercorp’s
international balance of payments, and likely tank such a supercorp’s
credit-worthiness, and irrupt the perceived riskiness of extending any further
loans to that supercorp, in the view of typical foreign banks.
The “pure state-bureaucratic
ruling class” dictatorships of such supercorps might impose draconian income
tax and other tax increases on the standards of living of their national wage/salary
working classes.
But this would likely risk
revolts that would overthrow those state-capitalist dictatorships, and likely institute
some regimes of ‘political-economic democracy’ in their place.
Such supercorps’ dictators
might have an easier time in imposing ‘techno-depreciation
risk management’ insurance premiums, or ‘techno-depreciation
expectance insurance taxes’, on their state-owned and
remaining non-state-owned corporations, than would the leaders of other, more “mixed-capitalist”
nation-states.
The supercorps’ dictators
could thereby accumulate a ‘techno-depreciation emergency fund’ from their ‘at-risk-for-techno-depreciation’
internal economic entities, while those entities’ means of production were
still intact to help earn foreign-exchange profits from which to pay those
premiums or taxes.
Such ‘emergency funds’ could
help with at least partial self-financing of purchases of replacement,
competent new means of production.
However, it is doubtful that
such measures could long suffice to avert a kind of ‘national supercorps’
bankruptcies’, with resulting isolation from access to international
financing for any commodity purchases at all, not only
for means of production purchases; i.e., to withstand the tsunami of growth of ‘the
global social forces of human-societal expanded self-re-production’ that is in
the offing in these latter days, perhaps the final days,
of the ‘decendence phase’ of the global, world market,
capitalist system.
and
https://independent.academia.edu/KarlSeldon
For partially pictographical, ‘poster-ized’ visualizations of many of these Seldonian insights -- specimens of ‘dialectical art’ – as well as dialectically-illustrated books
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¡ENJOY!
Regards,
Miguel Detonacciones,
Voting Member, Foundation Encyclopedia Dialectica [F.E.D.];
Elected Member, F.E.D. General Council;
Participant, F.E.D. Special Council for Public Liaison;
Officer, F.E.D. Office of Public Liaison.
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